SAN DIEGO REAL ESTATE TRENDS

San Diego Real Estate Trends

Early Bird Report on March Trends in San Diego Real Estate 

REDUNDANCY DRUMROLLS PLEASE

04/06/2025

March’s median  sales price of $1,082,500 is pointing less ambitiously than last month’s chart toward a new record high of $1,090,000 last April.  Spring has not quite sprung in closed sales at 1152, 7.5% lower than last March. However, a combo of pending sales of 1397 and active listings of 2730, up 28% from last March, should reap a decent amount of closings in April and possibly new price highs.  If more stock market turmoil hits, that could put a damper on April numbers, which is why MPM always recommends cashing out a good portion of your stocks earmarked for downpayment  early on in escrow. 

ART OF THE DEAL?

All eyes are on this morning’s stock movement scares of a trade war from Trump’s levy of new tariffs.  While it’s suggested that Trump’s figures are actually derived from trade imbalances between the U.S. and individual countries, one scenario is that he attempting to help level that playing field by getting countries to remove tariffs completely, which would lower the price of imported and exported goods, and lowering inflation pressures along the way: “The European Union offered President Donald Trump an "off-ramp" to ease trade tensions and market volatility with their willingness to go zero-for-zero on tariffs on industrial goods, Kevin O'Leary told FOX Business on Monday.” 

 

 February Trends in San Diego Real Estate 

TWO FACES HAVE I…

03/08/2025 

As the chart below illustrates, the median sales price of detached homes continues its climb, rising to $1,074,589 and on the same trajectory that brought us the new record high in April, 2024.  In last month’s report (see Walk in the Park), we found the bump in prices was primarily due to an 8% increase in sale prices at or above $2,000,000.  To have a better look at this trend historically, the chart below on sold listings shows how normal activity with sales prices under $1,000,000 (blue line) begin to dwindle starting around early 2018, then rising normally heading into Summer seasons, but headed to the dumpster beginning 2022, in sync with rising interest rate chart below.  Meanwhile, sales above $1,000,000 (orange and green lines) weren’t really affected and actually rose. But the bottom line is sold detached are still lagging and woefully low at a mere 978, and the segment that’s lagging the most are potential sellers in the lower segment (as if $999k and lower could be considered low anywhere else in the nation).  Are these reflecting two faces of the market’s buyers: the affluent and the less affluent held back by rising borrowing costs, and have no desire to move from a 3% rate on their current home to a higher priced one with a mortgage rate of 6-7%?    And those who are below the less affluent have been struggling just to pay bills.  Case in point: San Diego animal shelters are over capacity and it’s been reported in 2024 that owners are turning in their pets because they can’t afford the cost.  Recall FHA created a new program in 2024 that allowed borrowers to put their current delinquent loans at the back end of the loan, for no apparent reason other than to hide a problem in a world where the image was the U.S. has the best economy in the world.  Fox News described the sudden departure from this image and the tale of two economies when the commentators stated on 3-06-25:  Charles Payne told Fox Business Network anchor Maria Bartiromo that “the boom times are over” after a weak jobs report and new consumer spending data…but the problem is 10% are doing 50% of the buying. And everyone else is struggling because of higher rates. It’s a no win situation. “'Boom Times Are Over': Fox Host Charles Payne on US Spending.   The share of credit card balances that are past due reached the highest level ever in the first quarter, according to data the Philadelphia Federal Reserve has tracked since 2012.

 

JANUARY Trends in San Diego Real Estate

02/09/2025 

A WALK IN THE PARK 

Never mind the bedlam in D.C. as conspiracy theories finally ripen to facts , and prep work to summons up the gods of hell fire, street protesting, and likely the reopening of past playbooks of insurrection peddling,  it’s peace and tranquility here in San Diego as todays’ real estate stats reveal.  True, we got lucky with the 70mph   devil’s breath that scorched L.A. but buyers and sellers here  apparently hardly got a whiff of it.  In fact, as new listings climbed from 946 in December to 1819, an amazing  92% leap in one month, even more amazing the average sales price rose by 8% to $1,418,000 in the same monthly time slot!  What the?  As it turns out, while the total number of sold homes were still rummaging around the bottom at 926, just 5.5% higher than the modern all-time bottom of the barrel last January,  there was a 42% increase in sales prices above $2,000,000 on 146 sales, giving the 8% boost in value that many of us won’t necessarily feel in our neck of the woods.

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Early Bird Report on November Trends in San Diego Real Estate 

12/15/2024

THINGS THAT GO FLYING

While some real estate in the nation has suddenly become observation posts for things flying high in the sky for hours, if not for days, freaking homeowners, it’s the stuff flying low to the grown lately that have become killers of thousands. But who’s counting cyclones popping up called bomb cyclones in very unusual places with wind speed of 200mph or more, or fires wiping out towns followed by mud slides, when all the attention is on harmless blinking lights in the sky. Today’s data on real estate sales is hardly a blip on the screen, showing it’s just another month like any other month-- only better:  Median sales price of $1,025,000 flying 4.2% higher than when the market headed into the holiday season last November.  Sold home increased 17% higher to 1,115, with active listings giving a slight reprieve to buyer choices, up 26% to 2,644.    Notice in chart below that lower mortgage rate movements had little impact on prices.  That may change, though, as of today, they’re up .375%, highest in 7 months as Feds lower discount rate by .25% but indicate less coming in the New Year.

 

Early Bird Report on October Trends in San Diego Real Estate 

11/01/2024

ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT

It may be too early for the charts on October, but right now it seems statistically impossible for the chart on median price on over 1100 sales to be exactly $1,050,000 since July. A better guide would be the chart on average sales price of $1,429,852, up 10% from last year and just shy of the all-time record of $1,464,000 in April this year. Active listings are up 28% from last year at this time totaling 2,786. The number of sold at 1,158 inched up by 3.7% from a year ago, and pendings of 1,231, a 17% increase, should give some lift to November closings.  Inventory still remains relatively low at 2.4 months.  

 

Early Bird Report on September Trends in San Diego Real Estate 

10/05/2024

AUTUMN SALES SIGNAL THE FALL HAS YET TO COME

Average sale prices on detached are holding their own, flatlined for the last three months at $1,393,000, but not up like the 2 digit gains of the past, just up 3.6%  over last year.  New sellers have stepped into the ring  (1,714) to keep sales activity more brisk than usual.  While sold detached still not yet blooming at 1169 (though 8.5% higher than last year), combining active, pending and sold totals 5,327.  Throw in attached activity of 1,910 active listings (72% higher than last year and obviously more affordable than detached) pending of 698, sold 617, these two property types total 13,879, and should help keep the lights on for this industry and related ones.  Lenders awaiting a surge in refinance business may have to wait a bit longer as mortgage rates jumped ¼% after the wage data surprised all—including Federal Reserve officials (?).  Though buyers in 2023 might see about a 1% difference in rates compared to what they have now. That’s not chicken feed if there loan amount is around $450,000 or more ($450k x .01= $4500/yr or $375/mo).  Where the fall may come in is with the Dollar (up at the moment) and a shrinking economy that shrinks earnings.  It’s best to pull out cash with the refi or an equity loan as it’s always recommended to have savings of some 6 months of personal expenses stashed away. 

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Early Bird Report on August Trends in San Diego Real Estate

09/06/2024

SUMMER’S ALMOST OVER (NOT)

The heat is hot and so are sellers’  urges to get moving, as the chart shows active listings are up 35.8% from last year to 2,825, but nowhere near that unexplained pratfall from 9,894 in 6/2019 to just before the plandemic, where it fell to 3,265 in December 2019--and all during record low interest rate environment, still mystifying most mystics and non-mystics alike (see Alt-media section for alternative reasoning).  Sales are keeping somewhat of a pace albeit according to this chart sold detached still running under that historical barrier ceiling low of around 1500 at 1,290, 5.6% lower than last year.  Of the 2,825 active listings, the new ones total 1,919, nearly 20% increase from last year, while pendings are up 12% to 1,346, which should give a boost to September closings. An additional lift should come from mortgage rates now in the 5.75% range (5.99% APR), a far cry from 7% earlier this year.  The supply balance is still in the favor of sellers, with only 2.4 months of available, but sellers are caving somewhat on their list price, as average percent of sold price to list is 98.7%, whereas buyers were bidding as high as 6.8% above list in April of 2022, just before rates rose somewhat dramatically. This 98.7% figure will likely keep the lid on seller ambitions to list higher than last month’s sales.  While prices did rise by 2.3% in August from August of 2023, the chart says prices flatlined at the height of the Summer season at an average price of $1,391,500, and historically will falter a bit from here—but who really cares with prices like these.

WONDERING ABOUT THESE PRICES? Certainly this sale helped those averages, selling for $35,000,000 in La Jolla last month.  One has to wonder what the plan is because its only a 3300 sq. ft. home on a half-acre, built in 1946 and purchased by an LLC.  Though not claimed as a cash sale, all other cash sales total 324 transactions at $549,000,000( ie, half a billion)  Of those, just 11 transactions totaled $77,000,000.  Mainstream Media has no clues about these asset sales other than normal, but other conjecture is found in our Alt-Media Section.

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A.I. MAINSTREAM MEDIA HEADLINES?:Record-Breaking Accomplishments On Jobs And Unemployment Under Biden (forbes.com) 

AN A.I. TO ANOTHER A.I. CONVERSATION: Ok, apply autopilot  algorithm xx234 Starting November 1st through April 11th,  then -xx222J starting July, 16 variation, and -80 degree from July 30th to 08-05, return to xx234 for 48 hours, then -70 degree/ end 07-06  SECOND  A.I. I have an easier formula.  Just follow Meta stock program movements: Click here to identity the charts.

​​MORTGAGE RATE TRENDS & ECONOMIC REPORT~ 

 

MARKETS JOLTED BY THE JOLTS OF REALITY ?  AND THE JOLTS ARE ON THEM

The equity markets put the snooze button on throughout the month of July, a Summer slumber caused by seemingly automated rises in stock prices, then got jolted out of slumber the beginning of August that Japan’s stocks had been torpedoed and sinking on 8-05 (speculation found in Alt-Media Section).  The jury is still out after Friday’s cascading events.  Will the throttle get pulled up at opening bell Monday?  All this action made for major credit market movements as these 30yr. Fixed Rate mortgages descended nearly ¾% since July 1st to 5.75% +0pts (5.80% APR) today, but the big slide of ½% happened on that Black Monday event for Japan and elsewhere on 8-05-2024, one that took the wind out of the sails of stockholders, who watched the Nikkei 225 Index sink the fastest since October 24th 1987. While mainstream financial analysts were dumbstruck, we’ll post the most likely scenario that caused this under our Alt-Media Section below.  Anyone who has followed regular monthly economic reports over the years, and even decades like MPM, knows full well there was no such thing as a JOLTS report, but suddenly the markets around the world are awaiting the Bureau of Labor reports on 20+ thousands of phone calls and headcount of job openings called the JOLTS Report, and here are just some of the funny excerpts of market reactions per TradingEconomics.com around the world yesterday:    In Germany’s DAX closed 0.8% lower at 18,591, retreating sharply for a second session  The pessimistic data was centered around a weaker-than-expected JOLTS survey in the US.  And in Spain: The IBEX 35 fell 0.7% to close at 11,200 on Wednesday due to a weak JOLTS report that spurred a flight to safety.  And in China: The CAC 40 fell by 1% to close at 7,501 on Wednesday, marking its lowest level in two weeks… and a cooling labor market with a three-year low in job openings from the JOLTS report.  And finally in Europe:  European stocks closed sharply lower for a second session on Wednesday a weak JOLTS report added to the rush toward safety.  But now for the jolting joke of them all as we published last month: “Nearly Half of US Online Job Postings Are Fake.”   (see report below 07/05/2024 A RUSE, IS BUT A RUSE, IS BUT A RUSE).  

 

A.I. CREDIT MARKET LOGARITHMS SIDESTEP FED CACHE 22? So the global markets finally get a dose of reality: stats are made to be broken to alter perceptions about the economic strength of the U.S. economy..  Mortgage rates fell on expectations the Fed will lower rates, but what the  FEDS triggers in return looks something like this: “The dollar index depreciated to 100.9 on Friday, approaching again thirteen-month lows touched in August.”*So this amounts to renewed inflation expected from a “depreciated” Dollar (ie, it takes more Dollars to buy the same goods). Fixed-rates don’t do well with renewed inflation, so those numbers calculating inflation have to be suppressed someway, somehow until the next wake-up call hits the market. For example, an investor who buys these mortgage-backed securities at 5.75% will do so normally only if inflation runs about 1% or more below that.  If inflation runs above 5.75% that’s a loss of income after inflation factored in. The same, of course, is the case with a 10yr. Treasury note currently yielding 3.71%, and according to Bureau of Labor Stats:  Meanwhile, annual core inflation also slowed for a fourth consecutive month to 3.2%, the lowest reading since April 2021, compared to 3.3% in June. It’s nothing short of amazing that food & beverage priced got knocked down so quickly as this chart shows the inflation rate for 2024 election year compared with the last 39 months, yet Harris calls for a price freeze because the pubic isn’t buying these calculations  Food Inflation in the United States (1968-2024) (usinflationcalculator.com) Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

 

*The dollar index depreciated to 100.9 on Friday, approaching again thirteen-month lows touched in August, as the latest jobs report sparked speculation that the Federal Reserve may be ready for a substantial rate cut. The US economy added less jobs than expected in August and figures for both June and July were revised sharply lower. United States Dollar - Quote - Chart - Historical Data - News (tradingeconomics.com)  Ever hear of jobs revised sharply higher?

NOTABLE QUOTES

TRUMP: “At the suggestion of Elon Musk — I will create a Government efficiency Commission tasked with conducting a complete financial and performance audit of the entire federal government and making recommendations for drastic reforms. Elon.. has agreed to head that task force”

Appearing at the annual Jackson Hole economic symposium last month, Fed Chair Jerome Powell spotlighted the weakening in labor market conditions, noting that employment risks supersede inflation pressures. “We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions,” Powell said.  Problem here is most new jobs “cooled” down to part-time  employment and one has to wonder how did average wages rise in this environment?