SAN DIEGO REAL ESTATE TRENDS

Early Bird Report on August Trends in San Diego Real Estate

09/06/2024

SUMMER’S ALMOST OVER (NOT)

The heat is hot and so are sellers’  urges to get moving, as the chart shows active listings are up 35.8% from last year to 2,825, but nowhere near that unexplained pratfall from 9,894 in 6/2019 to just before the plandemic, where it fell to 3,265 in December 2019--and all during record low interest rate environment, still mystifying most mystics and non-mystics alike (see Alt-media section for alternative reasoning).  Sales are keeping somewhat of a pace albeit according to this chart sold detached still running under that historical barrier ceiling low of around 1500 at 1,290, 5.6% lower than last year.  Of the 2,825 active listings, the new ones total 1,919, nearly 20% increase from last year, while pendings are up 12% to 1,346, which should give a boost to September closings. An additional lift should come from mortgage rates now in the 5.75% range (5.99% APR), a far cry from 7% earlier this year.  The supply balance is still in the favor of sellers, with only 2.4 months of available, but sellers are caving somewhat on their list price, as average percent of sold price to list is 98.7%, whereas buyers were bidding as high as 6.8% above list in April of 2022, just before rates rose somewhat dramatically. This 98.7% figure will likely keep the lid on seller ambitions to list higher than last month’s sales.  While prices did rise by 2.3% in August from August of 2023, the chart says prices flatlined at the height of the Summer season at an average price of $1,391,500, and historically will falter a bit from here—but who really cares with prices like these.

WONDERING ABOUT THESE PRICES? Certainly this sale helped those averages, selling for $35,000,000 in La Jolla last month.  One has to wonder what the plan is because its only a 3300 sq. ft. home on a half-acre, built in 1946 and purchased by an LLC.  Though not claimed as a cash sale, all other cash sales total 324 transactions at $549,000,000( ie, half a billion)  Of those, just 11 transactions totaled $77,000,000.  Mainstream Media has no clues about these asset sales other than normal, but other conjecture is found in our Alt-Media Section.

________________________________________________________________________________________

HOME SALE UPDATE:$1,000,000 SALE IN NORTH HOLLYWOOD Home for the stars. A star(let) may be born, but first the line starts at 7am:  1 bath (1 toilet), 2 bedrooms and first soap interview at 8:00A.M.

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

A.I. MAINSTREAM MEDIA HEADLINES?:Record-Breaking Accomplishments On Jobs And Unemployment Under Biden (forbes.com) 

AN A.I. TO ANOTHER A.I. CONVERSATION: Ok, apply autopilot  algorithm xx234 Starting November 1st through April 11th,  then -xx222J starting July, 16 variation, and -80 degree from July 30th to 08-05, return to xx234 for 48 hours, then -70 degree/ end 07-06  SECOND  A.I. I have an easier formula.  Just follow Meta stock program movements: Click here to identity the charts.

​​MORTGAGE RATE TRENDS & ECONOMIC REPORT~ 

 

MARKETS JOLTED BY THE JOLTS OF REALITY ?  AND THE JOLTS ARE ON THEM

The equity markets put the snooze button on throughout the month of July, a Summer slumber caused by seemingly automated rises in stock prices, then got jolted out of slumber the beginning of August that Japan’s stocks had been torpedoed and sinking on 8-05 (speculation found in Alt-Media Section).  The jury is still out after Friday’s cascading events.  Will the throttle get pulled up at opening bell Monday?  All this action made for major credit market movements as these 30yr. Fixed Rate mortgages descended nearly ¾% since July 1st to 5.75% +0pts (5.80% APR) today, but the big slide of ½% happened on that Black Monday event for Japan and elsewhere on 8-05-2024, one that took the wind out of the sails of stockholders, who watched the Nikkei 225 Index sink the fastest since October 24th 1987. While mainstream financial analysts were dumbstruck, we’ll post the most likely scenario that caused this under our Alt-Media Section below.  Anyone who has followed regular monthly economic reports over the years, and even decades like MPM, knows full well there was no such thing as a JOLTS report, but suddenly the markets around the world are awaiting the Bureau of Labor reports on 20+ thousands of phone calls and headcount of job openings called the JOLTS Report, and here are just some of the funny excerpts of market reactions per TradingEconomics.com around the world yesterday:    In Germany’s DAX closed 0.8% lower at 18,591, retreating sharply for a second session  The pessimistic data was centered around a weaker-than-expected JOLTS survey in the US.  And in Spain: The IBEX 35 fell 0.7% to close at 11,200 on Wednesday due to a weak JOLTS report that spurred a flight to safety.  And in China: The CAC 40 fell by 1% to close at 7,501 on Wednesday, marking its lowest level in two weeks… and a cooling labor market with a three-year low in job openings from the JOLTS report.  And finally in Europe:  European stocks closed sharply lower for a second session on Wednesday a weak JOLTS report added to the rush toward safety.  But now for the jolting joke of them all as we published last month: “Nearly Half of US Online Job Postings Are Fake.”   (see report below 07/05/2024 A RUSE, IS BUT A RUSE, IS BUT A RUSE).  

 

A.I. CREDIT MARKET LOGARITHMS SIDESTEP FED CACHE 22? So the global markets finally get a dose of reality: stats are made to be broken to alter perceptions about the economic strength of the U.S. economy..  Mortgage rates fell on expectations the Fed will lower rates, but what the  FEDS triggers in return looks something like this: “The dollar index depreciated to 100.9 on Friday, approaching again thirteen-month lows touched in August.”*So this amounts to renewed inflation expected from a “depreciated” Dollar (ie, it takes more Dollars to buy the same goods). Fixed-rates don’t do well with renewed inflation, so those numbers calculating inflation have to be suppressed someway, somehow until the next wake-up call hits the market. For example, an investor who buys these mortgage-backed securities at 5.75% will do so normally only if inflation runs about 1% or more below that.  If inflation runs above 5.75% that’s a loss of income after inflation factored in. The same, of course, is the case with a 10yr. Treasury note currently yielding 3.71%, and according to Bureau of Labor Stats:  Meanwhile, annual core inflation also slowed for a fourth consecutive month to 3.2%, the lowest reading since April 2021, compared to 3.3% in June. It’s nothing short of amazing that food & beverage priced got knocked down so quickly as this chart shows the inflation rate for 2024 election year compared with the last 39 months, yet Harris calls for a price freeze because the pubic isn’t buying these calculations  Food Inflation in the United States (1968-2024) (usinflationcalculator.com) Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

 

*The dollar index depreciated to 100.9 on Friday, approaching again thirteen-month lows touched in August, as the latest jobs report sparked speculation that the Federal Reserve may be ready for a substantial rate cut. The US economy added less jobs than expected in August and figures for both June and July were revised sharply lower. United States Dollar - Quote - Chart - Historical Data - News (tradingeconomics.com)  Ever hear of jobs revised sharply higher?

NOTABLE QUOTES

TRUMP: “At the suggestion of Elon Musk — I will create a Government efficiency Commission tasked with conducting a complete financial and performance audit of the entire federal government and making recommendations for drastic reforms. Elon.. has agreed to head that task force”

Appearing at the annual Jackson Hole economic symposium last month, Fed Chair Jerome Powell spotlighted the weakening in labor market conditions, noting that employment risks supersede inflation pressures. “We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions,” Powell said.  Problem here is most new jobs “cooled” down to part-time  employment and one has to wonder how did average wages rise in this environment?

 

ALT-MEDIA SECTION

(labeled an entertainment section to avoid any law suits)

War Report Updates: The World’s Greatest Shell Game

Imagine if a former U.S. President said that it is the Central Bank, not him, that “control the levers of power.” Well that’s what a former Prime Minister of Great Britain recently said:  , former UK Prime Minister Elizabeth Truss says in public the Governor of the Bank of England is in charge of the UK, not the Prime Minister. She adds, “That is a problem in a democracy.” British military intelligence (MI6) is aware civilian governments have been hijacked and promised action to deal with the situation (better late than never). (source: benjaminfulford.net)  It’s been said that Queen Elizabeth had to bow before entering the central bank in the City of London, which is a city within a city.  But what if this just part of a bigger shell game, who we referred to in past reports as the  companies we call the 3 Amigos, all Intertwined companies, calling the shots on a global scale. “BlackRock’s Aladdin risk-management system, a software tool that can track and analyze trading, monitors more than $18 trillion in assets for 200 financial firms including the Federal Reserve and European central banks.

He who “monitors” also knows, we can imagine. BlackRock has been called a financial “Swiss Army Knife — institutional investor, money manager, private equity firm, and global government partner rolled into one.” Yet mainstream media treats the company as just another Wall Street financial firm.

There is a seamless interface that ties the UN Agenda 2030 with the Davos World Economic Forum Great Reset and the nascent economic policies of the Biden Administration. That interface is BlackRock.”   Lots of cash being shuffled about in this $shell$ game, all part of  these war games and likely being converted to real estate.